The Current Question
I get asked a lot of questions as an executive coach. Some are common and some are unique to an individual’s personal journey. A common question right now is the following one: “How do we plan for the future when the future is so unpredictable?”
Sometimes, I can give a concise and concrete answer to a question. Other times, I focus on sharing some material to help a person have a greater understanding of the subject we are about to explore. I also have been known to share a story and a lesson learned as a way to answer a question.
But on certain days, I answer a question by asking a question. Given the aforementioned question, I in turn often ask this question: “Where does the future come from?” This often stops the conversation for a moment. People really have to think about this question, because there is not a quick and fast answer.
“It often feels these days as if the future arrives from nowhere,” writes Margaret Wheatley in her book, Turning To One Another: simple conversations to restore hope to the future (Berrett-Koehlers, 2001). “Suddenly things feel unfamiliar, we’re behaving differently, the world doesn’t work the way it used to.” Right now, I think we all know these feelings and we all are struggling with how to process them and work with them in a productive manner.
As Wheatley continues, “The future doesn’t take form irrationally, even if it feels that way. The future comes from where we are now. It materializes from the actions, values and beliefs we are practicing now. We’re creating the future everyday, by what we choose to do. If we want a different future, we have to take responsibility for what we are doing in the present.”
There is so much to unpack in the previous sentences. First, the future comes from what we are doing right now. Second, the future is a reflection of the choices we make, and the beliefs and values we practice every day. Third, if we want to change the future, we have to take responsibility for what we are doing in the present, and then make changes accordingly.
So, how do we plan for the future when the future is so unpredictable?
The Missing Perspective
The concise answer to the aforementioned question about planning is to plan as we normally would. At the exact same time, we need to go deeper into some specific areas and understand how certain things have changed. For the goal of planning in unpredictable times is to create a plan that is flexible, adaptable, and resilient.
Over the last few decades, strategic planning has focused on creating a plan that positions a company in it’s current external landscape. During unpredictable times, strategy needs to move from a solution to current problems, and instead become a dynamic process that guides the development of the company, specifically its identity and purpose over time. For this later perspective, I often turn to an articled called “Putting Leadership Back Into Strategy” by Cynthia A. Montgomery in the January 2008 issue of the Harvard Business Review.
As Montgomery explained, the prevailing approach to strategy is to create a long term plan that is sustainable and offers a competitive advantage within its current market. This plan is often created by the CEO and outside strategy consultants. Once the plan is developed, it is an unchanging plan. The formation of this strategy comes from various analytical, left-brain exercises generated during an intense period of formulation. This is followed by a prolonged period of implementation. Furthermore, those involved defend it as the established strategy over time.
However, Montgomery proposes that strategy needs to become a dynamic process that is focused on creating value. Next, the CEO is the chief strategist within the context of a team, and the creation of the strategy can not be outsourced. While the planning process is organized, it also is adaptive, holistic and open-ended. Instead of separating planning from execution, she instead encourages all involved to frame up both events, i.e. planning and execution, as needing to be continuous and unending. This ongoing activity will foster competitive advantages and continue to develop the company over time.
For those who are interested in more detail, I encourage you to read the aforementioned article, and to discuss it as a senior team before you engage in the next round of strategic planning.
Strategic Planning During Unpredictable Times
With the above framework in mind, I have encouraged leaders to think of strategic planning during unpredictable times as a four step process. First, they need to accept and understand their current reality. The best way I know to do this is to routinely do an in-depth environmental scan or PESTAL analysis (political, economic, social, technological, environmental, legal factors/trends). Studying these trend lines over time provides us with a greater level of situational awareness and a more holistic understanding of what is, and what is not happening.
Second, they need to engage in a two step, process of strategic reflection and dialogue. Step #1 has two options. Option A focuses on how to adapt the core business model to the realities of the current marketplace. During this strategic dialogue, we answer the following questions: What can we still do better than the competition? What must we stop doing? Why do our customers come to us for solutions? What is the real need that connects them to our brand? These questions are a mirror and a window into what is currently happening and our responses to current market conditions. Option B focuses on how to embrace the possibilities of the “new” marketplace. During this time of strategic dialogue, we focus on this one question: What unmet needs do customers have during this unpredictable time period? The combination of both of these options makes those gathered think deeply about past choices and current possibilities.
Third, they need to engage in step #2. Here, those gathered create a variety of “what if” scenarios, and then figure out how to solve these potential realities. This is often called scenario based planning.
I have participated in multiple sessions of this nature and have witnessed incredible problem solving, and very productive exploration of innovative ideas. One time years ago, I worked with a group that spent nearly three hours working through a “what if” scenario. It was not a full disaster scenario, but a very scary possibility related to possible funding changes and how to continue providing services in the midst of these changes. The group that gathered that day struggled with the scenario, and yet they did come up with two to three, realistic possibilities of how to manage it if this were to take place.
Then, six months later, the “what if” scenario became a reality with a major change in funding and a major change in funding expectations. While most other organizations freaked out when this happened, the senior team of this organization, in conjunction with the rest of the group that had previously gathered that day, came together again, reviewed the current situation, reflected on their past two to three options already generated from their “what if” scenario, and then choose the right one given current events. No one freaked out, because they had already explored this possibility. In essence, they were prepared in advance, and had the right mind set, and skill set to handle it. While it was uncomfortable, it was not devastating as it could of been if they had not been prepared.
Step #4 is to develop highly adaptable plans which include planned short-term wins. The key difference in these plans is that they also have developed a system for updating them or changing them due to fluctuating market conditions, demand uncertainty, or the arrival of unplanned opportunities or challenges. This system is built on quarterly strategic reviews, including an in-depth KPI (Key Performance Indicators) review. However, most KPIs are lagging indicators, and thus when we review them, we are always looking in the rearview mirror. When possible, we also need to look at leading KPIs in order to respond effectively.
This four step process to planning during unpredictable time is not easy. It is an investment of time and energy. However, when done well and on a regular basis, it builds capacity for handling the unexpected and unknowns that show up routinely during times of this nature.
Return To The Core Research
When I have been challenged by senior executives that the aforementioned planning process is too time consuming and rigorous, I ask them to return to the core research by Jim Collins and Morten Hansen in their book, Great By Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos, and Luck - Why Some Thrive Despite Them All (HarperCollins, 2011). As they write, leaders “understand that they cannot reliably and consistently predict future events, so they prepare obsessively - ahead of time, all the time - for what they cannot possibly predict. They assume that a series of bad events can wallop them in quick succession, unexpectedly and at any time.” Then, they note, “It’s what you do before the storm hits - the decisions and disciplines and buffers and shock absorbers already in place - that matters most in determining whether your enterprise pulls ahead, falls behind or dies when the storm hits.”
In their writing, Collins and Hansen say that leaders who handle uncertainty and chaos zoom out before they zoom in. During this zoom out phase, they sense whether or not there is a change in market conditions. If so, they then attempt to frame and name it. During this assessment period, they address three key questions: How much time before the risk profile changes? Do the new conditions call for disrupting plans? If so, how?. Once they have answered these questions, they zoom in and “focus on supreme execution of plans and objectives.”
Leaders who do this successfully are externally focused, show productive paranoia, and remain hyper-vigilant to changing market conditions in order to respond in a timely and effective manner. As Collins and Hansen wrote, leaders exercise productive paranoia by “obsessing about what can go wrong. They ask questions like: What is the worst-case scenario? What are the consequences of the worst-case scenario? Do we have contingencies in place for the worst-case scenario? What’s the upside and what’s the downside of this decision? What’s the likelihood of the upside and downside? What’s out of our control? How can we minimize our exposure to forces we can’t control? What if? What if? What if?”.
In short, it is all about the questions. Then, it is all about execution. And that is why we must be disciplined in our approach to planning and execution during unpredictable and chaotic times.
Balancing Two Dualities
Now, as we move into the execution of a highly adaptable plan, we must understand leadership as a process of balancing two dualities, namely the strategic and the operational. Robert Kaplan and Robert Kaiser in their article, “Stop Overdoing Your Strengths” in the February 2009 issue of the Harvard Business Review, note that the strategic focuses on positioning the organization for the future while the operational focuses the organization on short-term results. While the former is taking the long view and has a big picture perspective, the later is engaged in managing the day-to-day details of implementation.
Next, the strategic leader seeks ways to grow the business and expand capabilities. On the other hand, the operational leader wants to maximize efficiency, conserve resources by cutting costs, and being very selective about priorities. In short, strategic leaders are promoting innovation by questioning status quo and encouraging new thinking while the operational leader is focused on maintaining order by getting things done using procedures and process discipline.
The challenge when helping an organization execute an adaptable plan is that the strategic and the operational choices can be seen in direct conflict with each other. However, each is important and each counters the other. Therefore, as a consultant and coach, I often discussed with the senior leadership, which components of the plan would require more strategic leadership and which components would require more operational leadership. Both are important and both need to be done well.
Over time, what I discovered is that the metaphorical right hand did not know what the left hand was doing, i.e. the strategic leaders did not get what the operational leaders were doing and vise a versa. The result was often organization miscommunication, resource conflicts, and a general decline in teamwork and collaboration. Until all involved knew what kind of leadership was being deployed to execute the plan, there tended to be a convergence of problems and priorities. Yet, when there was clarity about the two different forms of leadership that needed to be deployed in order to execute the plan, then all involved could work together through the normal technical and adaptive problems that happen when executing a plan of this nature.
Three Critical Choices
When the strategic and operational leadership choices are made clear, then senior leadership needs to make three critical choices in order to be successful. First, they need to have a disciplined approach to understanding market uncertainty and market evolution. Given the concept of uncertainty is so big, we need to break it down into three workable distinctions. Market uncertainty reflects what is happening within the market and is sometimes called demand uncertainty. It is based on the question: Are we still offering the right goods and services which meet the changing needs of our customers? Given current events, some leaders are questioning whether or not our information sources about what is happening within the market are still the right ones to be paying attention to.
Next, capacity uncertainty reflects what is happening within the company. It is based on the question: Do our internal operations have the capacity to meet the changing needs of the market and the customers, and still be competitive at the same time? Here, we need to think about people, structure, systems, culture, plus the health of our supply chain and the strength and resilience of our external partners.
Finally, leadership uncertainty reflects whether or not people in leadership positions have the correct mindset and the right competencies to deal with market uncertainty and capacity uncertainty. It is based on the question: Do we have people in leadership positions who have the capacity to plan and the capacity to execute that plan given the degree of uncertainty in the market and the organization? Having a common language around uncertainty and a system in place to answer the aforementioned questions on a regular basis will build capacity during unpredictable times.
Second, all people in leadership and management positions need to understand the strategic intent of the company. This is because the strategies and goals may have to adapt quickly due to a rapidly changing market environment. The goal of this choice is to build alignment around intent. However, John Doerr in his book, Measure What Matters: How Google, Bono, and Gates Foundation Rock the World with OKRs (Portfolio, 2018), writes “alignment is rare.” Studies suggest that only 7 percent of employees “fully understand their company’s business strategies and what’s expected of them in order to help achieve the common goals.” A lack of alignment, according to a poll of global CEOs, is the number-one obstacle between strategy and execution. Yet, when we invest the time and energy to create this level of clarity, we are building resilience into the core of the company. As A.G. Lafley and Roger Marten in their book, Playing To Win: How Strategy Really Works (Harvard Business Review Press, 2013), reminds us: We “compete from the core” of the business. Having an aligned core is mission critical to short and long term success.
Third, we need to remember The Law of Explosive Growth which John Maxwell included in his book, The 21 Irrefutable Laws of Leadership: Follow them and People Will Follow You (Thomas Nelson Publishers, 1998). This law states: “To add growth, lead followers; to multiply, lead leaders.” As he further explains, “Leaders who develop followers grow their organization only one person at a time. But leaders who develop leaders multiple their growth, because for every leader they develop, they also receive all of that leader's followers.” During unpredictable times, we need leaders who are developing leaders, not just developing followers. For in the end, and as we execute a highly adaptable plan, we need more leaders who are becoming better leaders, in order for growth and resilience to take place.
Create Islands Of Sanity
“Once you've done the mental work, there comes a point you have to throw yourself into the action and put your heart on the line,” writes former NBA coach Phil Jackson. “That means not only being brave, but being passionate towards yourself, your teammates, and your opponents.” And when we put our hearts on the line, and show disciplined passion, there are four key ideas we must keep in mind.
First, we can not speak our desired culture into existence. Instead, we need to behave in a manner that reflects our commitments and our clarity. We need to role model being adaptive at the strategic level and the operational level.
Second, as the late Stephen Covey noted, we can not talk our way out of the problems we are are behaving our way into. This is at the personal level, the team level, and even the company level. Our individual and collective actions make a difference. When the future is so unpredictable, they are even more important.
Third, we must be very aware of what is happening during our interface moments. The late William Bridges defined an interface as the place “where the surface of one thing meets the surface of another. It is less like a dividing line and more like a permeable membrane, and the action at the interface is the interplay, the communication, the mutual influence that goes on between societies . . . that are side by side. The interface is where the vital relationships are established that are necessary for survival in a world of increasing interdependency.” For in the beginning, the middle, and the end, it is the vitality of relationships that will make a profound difference as we manage uncertainty.
Finally, we need to take to heart the following insight shared by Margaret Wheatley: “It is possible, in this time of profound disruption, for leadership to be a noble profession that contributes to the common good. It is possible as we face the fearful complexity of life-destroying problems, to experience recurring moments of grace and joy. It is possible, as leaders of organizations, communities, and families, to discover deep and aiding satisfaction in our work if we choose not to flee or withdraw from reality. It is possible to find a path of contribution and meaning if we turn our attention away from issues beyond our control and focus on the people around us who are yearning for good leadership and engage them in work that is within reach. It is possible to use our influence and power to create islands of sanity in the midst of a raging destructive sea.”
So, how do we plan for the future when the future is so unpredictable? We create islands of sanity, role model good leadership, and engage people in the work that is within reach. And by doing this, we will move forward together and contribute to the common good.
© Geery Howe 2025
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